Dec 15, 2010

Pefindo adjusts Pelat Timah price target

PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) today has adjusted target price of tin plate maker PT Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (NIKL) in the range of IDR580-IDR640 per share.
In a company report published on December 13, Pefindo has also adjusted its previous looking back 3Q10 results. 
The adjustment is based on Pelat Timah's sales increase 19.7% YoY in 3Q10 to IDR1.07 trillion from IDR0.89 trillion in 3Q09, its mainly contributed from the sales volume increase of 27.2% YoY. 
"While the sales volume is increase in line with Pefindo's projection, the tinplate average price is actually decrease about 6% YoY, so we adjust our sales target in 2010 about 5% to IDR1.43 trillion figure."
Although there is sales adjustment, the current economic condition shows favorable impact in Pefindo's valuation with better beta and lower risk free rate. "With these figure, we adjust our discount from 13.6% to 11.5%."
Pelat Timah records good performance in 3Q10, its sales reach IDR1.07 trillion, representing 19.7% YoY rise from 3Q09 figure. 
The sales volume shows even better growth with about 27.2% YoY to reach 83.464 tons of tinplate compared to 65.636 tons in previous year. 
This sales volume until 3Q10 is already about 93% from FY09 figure of 89.301 tons. It is underpinned by the increasing demand from food and beverages industry that grow about 4.2% in 3Q10. 
This increasing sales volume and demand already anticipated by NIKL, currently they running revamping project for better efficiency and additional production capacity which estimated fully effective in 2012.
Pelat Timah's prospect is still wide open coinciding with the timely growth of Indonesia’s economy, food and beverages industry as NIKL major costumer is estimated to grow more than 6.5% this year. 
"With very positive achievement in 3Q10 and better Indonesian economic condition, we believe NIKL can book 20.7% YoY sales growth in 2010 with IDR1.43 trillion sales, and CAGR 13.8% from 2010-2014."
Pelat Timah, which established in 1982 and produced tinplate commercially since January 1986, is the only tinplate producer in Indonesia. 
It produces the high quality tinplate with international standards which used as raw material for can packaging for milk, food, paint, general use and others. 
Almost 70% of its tinplate products are used for food and beverages packaging. In 2009, Pelat Timah reached 55% national market shares of tinplate consumption. 
The company plans to increase production capacity from 130,000 ton per year to 160,000 ton per year which estimated to operate in 2012.

Disclosure: No position at the stock mentioned above.

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